Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Groundhog Day.

It's about time to clear up confusion about Groundhog Day, and the alleged prognosticatorial predictions of marmots.

In winter, at least in northeastern North America, (and apparently in Europe), there are, generally speaking, two kinds of days, warmer ones that are still very cold, and very cloudy, if not with light rains, and bitter cold ones, where an arctic cold high pressure system is present, and skies are very, very clear.

So, as far as the groundhog legend goes, if the groundhog sees its shadow, that means it is one of those bitter arctic days, with bright sunshine. Hence the shadow, and hence the more weeks of winter. If the groundhog sees no shadow, that means that it is one of those grey, drear, but warmer days, and the liklihood that the worst of the winter season has passed.

From this point of view, it is eminently practical, and involves nothing to do with the magical properties of marmots.

Of course, if a particular groundhog sees something is meaningless, as is the particular moment some event happens.

Groundhog Day, a vestige of Germanic culture in Pennsylvania, is an old European custom then attached to Candlemas day.

"If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter will have another flight.
If Candlemas be cloud and rain,
Winter will be gone and not come again."

The world makes more sense than you expect.

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